Assessing the chances of success

The campaign has so far raised only $281 towards its $25,000 goal, with half the campaign period elapsed. These signs indicate a near zero chance the campaign will reach its funding target. With more than 50% of the timeline passed but less than 2% of funds secured, the project is very unlikely to gain the necessary momentum and backer support to succeed.

Analyzing the campaign pitch video

The campaign video spends over a minute setting up the game’s backstory before showing any actual gameplay footage. For a game project pitch video, this is too long an exposition without demonstrating the core product. Viewers want to see how the game looks and plays within the first 30 seconds. By failing to lead with compelling gameplay video and instead prioritizing backstory detail, the video risks losing audience attention and interest too early.

Evaluating the development team’s capacity

All team members are working full-time jobs in addition to game development. This signifies a high probability the team lacks the time and resources needed to complete the project on schedule. As an apparently first-time game studio, there is increased uncertainty around their ability to manage risks, budgets, and deadlines for a successful product launch. Juggling other full-time work leaves doubts about commitment and focus on the game.

Considering planned release platforms

Aiming for Nintendo 3DS and Wii U seems ambitious given the difficulty indies face in accessing developer kits and support for those platforms. While Nintendo may be opening up, releasing on those systems still poses challenges for inexperienced teams. The campaign does not provide evidence the team has experience developing for those platforms or relationships with Nintendo to facilitate the process.

Analyzing the game concept

While the top-down 2D adventure concept on its own does not inherently copy The Legend of Zelda, the insinuation it would be seen that way seems an unrealistic stretch. This genre has been explored through many different lenses by independent developers, so the concept alone does not appear infringing or unoriginal. However, more details are needed to evaluate if the specific execution brings something new.

Evaluating team and campaign preparedness

To have a realistic chance at success, running a Kickstarter campaign needs to be a full-time job in itself. Extensive market research on proven best practices is also crucial beforehand. This team’s other commitments indicate lack of dedicated focus. Before relaunching, thoroughly strengthening the proposal, team capacity, and pitch materials is advised based on lessons from this experience. Without changes, future campaigns may face similar challenges.

Conclusion

Given the extremely low funds raised, elapsed timeline, team capacity constraints, and lack of evidence addressing other concerns, all signs point to this specific campaign having overwhelmingly high risk of failure. While the concept alone may not be a “scam,” prudent backers would be wise to avoid pledging here and instead wait for a stronger proposal with firmer foundations for delivering on promises. The campaign in its current form does not inspire confidence of a successful outcome.